Coronavirus – August 7th, 2021

The rate of cases continues to go up. It was at a slightly lower rate, but it’s still going up. I’m guessing that the Delta variant will run it’s course by the end of the month and rates will start going back down. Especially since summer will be winding down and families will get back to their school year routine.

This weekly update of cases is showing that the national average of daily new cases continues to increase at a high rate and we’re now ten times higher than where we were in mid-June and at the same level as early February. This week the 7-day average of daily new cases increased by 36.0% compared to a increase of 57.8% decrease last week. It brings the national average back up to 32.3 new cases per 100 000 people. We are now at a higher rate of cases than the summer surge last year.

About 6 million vaccination shots have been given in the US over the past week for a total of 351 million shots so far. My estimations for the number of shots needed for herd immunity considers that the Johnson & Johnson single shot is out there. So let’s still say that 240 million people need to be vaccinated for herd immunity. And I’ll guess that out of those, about a sixth will eventually get the J&J shot. It would mean that about 440 million shots would need to be given ((2×200)+40). At the current rate (about 5 million/week) we could reach the herd immunity goal in 21 weeks around New Years adding three weeks for the two weeks after the shot and another for the fact that it won’t be the second shot for everyone.

This first map shows the rate of new daily cases per 100 000 people.  In my opinion, states have the spread of the virus under control if they can keep that down below 3/100k.  South Dakota is the only state close to that mark at 6.04. Almost half the states have returned above the 24/100k mark and two of them, Louisiana and Florida, are above 90/100k. 42 states: Louisiana, Florida, Alabama (x2), Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alaska, Kentucky, Hawaii, Wyoming, North Carolina, Arizona, Washington state (x2), Idaho (x2), California, Oregon (x2), New Mexico, Indiana, Montana, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Illinois, Virginia, West Virginia, Iowa, Nebraska, New York state, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maryland, Vermont, and Maine moved up a category since last week. No states moved down a category.

The second map shows the increase or decrease in the per capita rate of new cases over the past week compared to the week before.  For the fourth straight week, every state except Utah and Nevada saw an increase. It is worth noting that this only shows how the current rate compares to the previous rate.

For the other places I’m tracking, here are the rates and percentages. I’ve been tracking the large cities and select countries for comparison. Those with rates lower than 3/100k, higher than 24/100k, or those with increases or decreases more than 20% have been put in bold :

Illinois: 18.9/100k, up 43%
Chicago: 12.0/100k, up 46%
New York City: 14.0/100k, up 44%
Los Angeles county: 31/100k, up 6%
North Carolina: 31/100k, up 43%
Canada: 2.7/100k, up 51%
Ontario: 1.47/100k, up 26%
Waterloo region: 3.2/100k, up 7%
Quebec: 2.3/100k, up 80%
Montreal: 3.3/100k, up 59%
India: 3.0/100k, no change

Italy: 9.5/100k, up 12%
France: 33/100k, up 3%
Spain: 45/100k, down 15%
Iran: 44/100k, up 20%
South Korea: 3.0/100k, down 1%
China: 0.01/100k, up 56%

~ by Frank on August 9, 2021.