My Tally

In light of tomorrow’s big day tomorrow, I thought I’d summarize how things may transpire and what early indicators may say about the rest of the evening. Granted none of this is new and I’m not a pundit, but I figured what the heck and it’d be fun to prognosticate for once. Plus I just can’t resist playing with numbers.

As anyone who has been following the US election knows, it is the number of electoral college votes you get and not the number of actual votes. Plus for most of the states, it is very likely that they will go one way or another. Unless it is reversed by act of God or act of some political insider. Since I’m an Obama supporter, I’m approaching this with the interest of seeing him win.

Using recent general poll data, I assume we can safely count those states in which Obama is leading by at least 12 points. Because if doesn’t win in those states, these suspicions of a Bradley Effect will be true. So counting those states here is the breakdown by their poll closing times:

7 PM ET
Vermont – 3 EV

8 PM ET
Connecticut – 7 EV
Delaware – 3 EV
District of Columbia – 3 EV
Maine – 4 EV
Maryland – 10 EV
Massachusetts – 12 EV
New Jersey – 15 EV
Illinois – 21 EV

9 PM ET
New York – 31 EV
Rhode Island – 4 EV
Michigan – 17 EV
Minnesota – 10 EV

10 PM ET
Iowa – 7 EV

11 PM ET
California – 55 EV
Oregon – 7 EV
Washington – 11 EV
Hawaii – 4 EV

Those states together total 224 electoral votes. 270 electoral votes are required to achieve a majority and win the election. So Obama needs 46 electoral votes from the remaining 32 states. Lets look at those state where Obama is leading in the polls by between 7 and 11 percentage points.

7 PM ET
Virginia – 13 EV

8 PM ET
New Hampshire – 4 EV
Pennsylvania – 21 EV

9 PM ET
Wisconsin – 10 EV
New Mexico – 5 EV

The electoral votes from these states total 53 giving Obama a win with 277 electoral votes. So I see the results coming out of Virginia as being a strong indicator of where the evening may be headed. I think Virginia is also a good indicator since it borders on the Mason-Dixon line and has southern influences. And conversely, if for some reason at 7 PM Georgia either goes to Obama or is a close race, the tide would greatly be in Obama’s favor.

Next up would be Ohio at 7:30 PM ET with their 20 electoral votes. Currently Obama leads by 6 percentage points. If Ohio stays for Obama, I really think you could call it a night. It would take Pennsylvania switching to McCain along with a state like Virginia or Wisconsin to negate that win.

Now I’m not going to predict that Obama will win since I don’t want to jinx it, but I do have my hopes up. One truth is that he is ahead in more than enough states to win according to the polls. And those polls in all those states would have to be wrong at the same time in order for an Obama win not to happen. I just hope that tomorrow night I can dream of what America will become under his leadership.

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~ by Frank on November 3, 2008.

One Response to “My Tally”

  1. YES HE DID !!!

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